I’ve not written for a wee while so I thought I would share how this nearly made me choke on my cornflakes this morning. I gave them the benefit of the doubt believing it must be a spoof. It quickly became clear that it wasn’t and the Tories are really that patronising.
I then thought I’d try and be positive instead and focus on the new panelbase poll which put Yes on 40%, no on 45% and undecided on 15%. This seems to reflect a bit more what we’ve seen on the doors recently. Once undecideds were taken out it was yes 47% no 53%. I should point out that this was commissioned by the pro independence Newsnet Scotland and that panelbase in previous polls have produced higher proportions for yes than others. Despite this polls are clearly showing that the momentum is for people moving to a yes vote but there is still so much work to be done in the next six months. From what I’ve seen even if polls end up showing there will a majority for Yes the campaign will not be complacent and will continue to work hard, get out knocking on doors and spreading the positive case for independence.
It’s also become more clear why this had to be a long game. At the beginning of the campaign many were just going to vote no as it seemed easier and safer to do so and not really think about the possibilities a yes vote would bring. The more we have spoken to people and the more they have educated themselves, particularly if they have looked beyond the mainstream media, the more they are likely to move towards a yes vote. Now there are people who would never have considered voting yes a year ago are definite yes voters and when that begins to happen you know there has been a huge shift in public opinion. Once changes like this happen and people have been shown that positive changes can be made people become dissatisfied with the status quo. If there is a no vote it is clear that the Scottish people want more power for Holyrood what is also clear to me is that if there is a no vote that won’t happen and the opportunity for independence will be gone for a generation or more. Westminster will not let us hold another referendum. That is absolutely clear.
At the moment momentum is definitely with yes and I was speaking to a no voting friend the other day who admitted he was worried by this. The official Better Together campaign also seem to be getting a bit worried. What remains to be seen is if this momentum will continue and at a quick enough pace to clear the 50% line.